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North-South Rental Market Divide Narrows as Rents Rise in the North

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    North-South Rental Market Divide Reaches “Narrowest Point”

    New data from Hamptons’ September Lettings Index suggests that rental growth across the country has been cooling for the last 12 months. In August 2023, newly let property rental growth peaked at 12% – 5 times higher than the pre-COVID average of 2.5%. Last month, rental growth across the country stood at 5.0%, the lowest rate since April 2021.

    According to this report, this has led to the longstanding disparity between rental prices in the North and South of England reaching its “narrowest point” in over a decade. The North West is top of Hamptons’s growth table, with newly let properties seeing a rental growth increase of 53% since 2019, more than double the growth recorded in Wales (19%), the weakest-performing region. Data also suggests the area has increased in real terms, up 29% over the last five years.

    Let’s examine how this will impact the UK property market going forward.

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      Rents Rise Significantly in the North

      Hamptons’ Lettings Index reveals that while the South experienced a cooling in rental growth from 8.7% to 5% over the last year, the North has seen rents rise by 9.6% year-on-year, maintaining a similar pace to the previous year.

      As a result, Hamptons says the gap between rents in the North and South has closed to its smallest level since they began their records in 2013. Last month, the average new tenancy in the South of England cost £1,318 PCM, 37% more than in the North, where rents averaged around £960 PCM. This gap has narrowed from 43% in August 2023 and down from a peak of 55% in November 2021.

      Data also suggests that the North-South divide has fallen in cash terms. For example, the average rental property in the North cost £357 PCM more than in the South, down from £378 PCM in August 2023.

      Hamptons believes that this narrowing reflects the cyclical nature of the housing market, with house prices in the North rising 31% – nearly double the rate seen in the South. Their data suggests that these figures have been mirrored in the rental market, with rents in the North quickly catching up.

      In real terms, rents in the North have increased by 24%, compared to 10% across the South of England. Rents in Wales (-5%) have fallen in real terms over the last 5 years.

      Rents in Greater London are only slightly positive, with just 3% rental growth since 2019, equating to an average of just 0.2% growth each year in the capital.

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      What’s the Future Outlook for the UK Rental Market?

      Hamptons suggests property investors now focus on potential policy changes, particularly the upcoming Budget.

      Aneisha Beveridge, Head of Research at Hamptons, said: “Much like house prices, the rental North-South divide has been closing for the last five years. The narrowing reflects the cyclical nature of the housing market, with house prices in the North of England rising 31%, nearly double the Southern rate. These figures have been mirrored in the rental market, with rents in the North of England quickly playing catch up.

      “At the same time, investors are starting to think about the upcoming Budget. While recent Budgets have mostly left investors alone, landlords will be watching October’s announcement more closely than usual to get a steer on what they can expect from a Labour government.”

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      Author

      Reece Pape

      Reece Pape is a property writer at RWinvest. Utilising up-to-date property statistics and data, Reece aims to keep investors informed on the latest market developments.

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